Manifesting a growth economy — insights from True North Live

Understanding macroeconomic changes can feel abstract — and translating what they actually mean for businesses is an ongoing challenge.

That’s the thinking behind True North Live — a new quarterly forum engaging our network members in ‘big picture’ topics. True North co-chair Michael Hayman hosted the first session to explore how businesses truly feel about the current economic landscape, opening up with the simple question: “how do you feel about life and how’s your business going?”

While it might seem simple, according to our guest speaker, Behavioural Economist Roger Martin-Fagg, how we feel about life is a key driver of our economic system. Drawing from three decades of understanding how the ‘engine room’ of the UK economy works, Roger shared what the data is actually telling us. 

The headline was this: if we feel confident and optimistic, we spend freely — but if we’re cautious and pessimistic, we’ll hold onto our cash and investment will dry up. 

Here, Michael tells us more.

Data beyond the doom scroll 

Right now, global supply chain volatility and political turmoil is perpetuating a 'doom and gloom' narrative in the UK, creating an overwhelming sense of uncertainty that’s damaging capital flow. While times might feel tight, Roger highlighted that this isn’t due to limited capital. Around £190bn of unallocated money sits on the sidelines because of a hesitancy to spend it. 

To change the national picture, we need to instill more confidence in our businesses and consumers — but what agency do we have in a challenging environment to buck the trend?

The power of a feel-good economy 

Roger started off with some data that could be considered surprising. Despite an often negative economic narrative, our money supply is growing exactly as it should be at just under 5% — enough to fuel real growth at 1.5%. However, over the last three years, we’ve been saving more in the UK than we’ve been spending, driven by the uncertainty of that negative narrative.

Think of the economy as a hosepipe. When money goes in — whether through investment or retail spending — it feeds into the pipe and begins to flow. When we hold onto our cash, the hosepipe dries up. 

The only way to turn the hosepipe back on is to restore confidence.

The power of a 'feel-good economy' can be seen in any major event like the 2012 Olympics or even a spell of good weather, which correlates with boosted retail sales. Similarly, swift, tangible actions like fixing potholes can catalyse spending. Positive mood music brings positive change and both government and businesses play a key role in setting the scene.

Stability is the ally of productivity 

It was impossible to discuss 'mood' without addressing UK politics. Stability is vital to the human condition and constant leadership churn makes long-term investment incredibly difficult. To encourage investment, we must remove doubt.

For the True North network, stable governance often comes from local leadership. Manchester, for example, is seeing its economy grow at twice the national average thanks to strong leadership, long established private-public ties and a positive narrative of improvement.

While members noted that the slowness of central decision making is curbing optimism, they were overwhelmingly positive when talking about regional strengths and opportunities such as the North West’s booming tech sector and renewable energy figures.

One member noted that businesses often make the mistake of measuring themselves against how the UK economy is doing when they need to measure against how their region is performing. Focusing on local opportunity is where the real potential lies. 

Reasons to be cheerful

Roger closed with a vital reminder: the future is exceptionally bright. The UK excels at high-end products and world-class intellectual property. Our main barrier is that we don’t back ourselves as boldly as other nations, which places a ceiling on ambition.

We need to think big and take risks. By following the lead of resilient owner-led businesses and proactive regional governments, we can turn the tide for Britain and manifest a positive economy that’s ready for real growth. 

Continuing the conversation

True North Live was created to give our network a space to make sense of the economic mood, challenge the narrative and share what’s really happening on the ground. The insights from this first session show just how much confidence, local leadership and practical action matter — and how much potential there is across our regions when those elements come together.

If you want to stay part of these conversations, shape future sessions and connect with others navigating the same challenges, join us.